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1970:
End of Gold Standard
Forecast a near-term major global financial crisis and
realignment of currencies. This occurred, culminating
in the removal of the U.S. dollar from the Gold Standard
in 1972.
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1971:
World Oil Crisis & Debt Crisis
In studying energy markets, found a then obscure, newly-formed
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Forecast
the evolution of OPEC into a cartel that could leverage
oil prices to at least double their 1971 level, causing
severe inflation, rising interest rates, and a global
lending crisis. In 1973, OPEC tripled oil prices overnight,
sending the world into a decade of hyperinflation, debt
defaults, and geopolitical turmoil.
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1976:
Opening Up of China
In studying potential HongKong office for CIBC, discovered
Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai's plan to modernize China
and open it to the world, and forecast this would occur
after death of Mao. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping announced
"Four Modernizations" and "Opening Up" policies. (It
later transpired that Frank himself was asked to advise
on these policies and he's been a Special Advisor to
the Chinese government ever since!)
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1980:
the Re-Unification of Germany
At 1st Global Conference on the Future, forecast the
re-unification of Germany as new Soviet leaders sought
closer alliance with the West.
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1981:
Gorbachev to be Soviet Leader
In studying global grain market for Agriculture Canada,
learned that next Soviet Agriculture Minister would
be Mikhail Gorbachev. Forecast he would be next General
Secretary of Communist Party (occurred in 1985).
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1981:
Gorbachev 1991 Coup
In 1981 study, speculated that Gorbachev would suffer
a "political accident" after about 5 years. A coup occurred
in 1991.
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1987:
Stock Market Crash
In February and again in September 1987, forecast a
stock market crash in October 1987, as occurred.
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1988:
Fall of Berlin Wall
Forecast in G-Forces that Berlin Wall would be
"torn down dramatically in the early 1990s" leading
to reunification of Germany. The wall was removed in
late 1989.
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1988:
Mini-Depression 1990-1991
Forecast in G-Forces a severe (post-market crash)
recession, leading to 1992 loss of Presidency by George
Bush. Economy hit bottom in May 1991 and Bush lost the
1992 election.
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1988:
Super-Boom 1993-2018
Forecast in G-Forces a 25-year economic "Super-Boom"
driven by high tech, including a booming stock market,
with economic slow-downs in 2000-2001 and 2009-2010.
So far, forecast is on track; severe stock market correction
of Spring 2000 is precursor of economic slowdown (not
recession) in late 2000 to 2001.
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1990
and 1992: Chinese Economic Boom
Re-iterated forecast in G-Forces that China would
at least double its economy between 1990 and 2000 and
would be global economic super-power in early 21st century.
China doubled its GDP by 1997 and is still growing 7%-8%
annually after inflation.
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1993:
Internet Access via TeleCom Wallets/WebPhones
Forecast in The Future Consumer a combo PC-cellphone
"TeleCom Wallet" to replace wallets/purses and be used
to surf the Net and shop online before 2004. Nokia estimates
there will be one billion cellphones in use by 2004,
half of them with Net access. (In FutureConsumer.Com,
he now calls these devices WebPhones.)
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2000:
Internet to Grab 31% of Retail Sales by 2010
Latest major forecast, in FutureConsumer.Com,
is that 31% of all retail sales will be made online
by 2010 - 43% if big-ticket categories such as automobiles,
homes, and education are excluded.
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2000: Stock Market Crash
Forecast a major 30%-50% correction in the Nasdaq and related stock markets.
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1992, 1996, 2000, 2004: China Super-Boom
Forecast ongoing economic growth averaging 10% annually in China until at least 2010.
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1993, 1997, and 2000: Global Terrorism
Forecast growing risk of global terrorism, with widespread fanatical attacks using home-made and suitcase bombs.
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2000 and 2006: "Webolution" of Society:
Predicted "Web Lifestyle" in North America by 2008 and 2.5 billion people online worldwide by 2010 (presently on track).
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